EPL Top Scorer 2021/22: Salah’s race for the Golden Boot

Harry Kane narrowly edged Liverpool’s Mohammed Salah to the Golden Boot prestigious award last season with 23 goals. This season though, things look a little different with Mohammed Salah currently in pole to win the Premier League Golden Boot, having scored 10 goals so far in his opening 11 matches in the league in 2021/22.

Liverpool’s Mohammed Salah is still the favorite to win the Golden Boot at odds of 1/1 ahead of Manchester United’s second-placed Cristiano Ronaldo with odds of 5/1. Mohammed Salah has been in fine form coming to this 2021/22 season, and as a bettor, you may want to back him winning the Golden Boot this season. It seems like Salah is always scoring for fun.

Whom are the bookies rooting for the EPL’s Golden Boot?

As implied by the latest bookmakers’ odds, the following is what may happen in the race for the Golden Boot.

Player Chance of winning the EPL Golden Boot
Mohammed Salah50%
Cristiano Ronaldo17%
Romelu Lukaku13%
Jamie Vardy8%
Sadio Mane6%
Harry Kane5%
Pierre-Emerick Aubemayang4%

Choosing your top goalscorer seems smart right now while the odds are still great. Make your pick at the top bookies to lock those great odds at the moment and reap the rewards later.

As you can see from the table above, Mohammed Salah remains the favorite to win the EPL Golden Boot. He has only failed to score in an EPL match for only the second time this season, but his tally of 10 goals so far puts him three clear of the chasing pack.

Mohammed Salah
Mohammed Salah, 2021 (Christian Bertrand / Shutterstock.com)

Mo Salah’s Current 2021/22 Shot Accuracy

So far, in the English Premier League season 2021/22, Mohammed Salah has played 11 matches. He’s had 21 shots on target from 29 shots, managing to score 10 goals (7.91 xG). Liverpool’s Mohammed Salah averages 35 matches in a single match with an impressive pass completion rate of 81%, and 7 assists. So far, Mohammed Salah hasn’t received any yellow or red card. Salah is scoring more goals in the EPL this season as he keeps shooting more often (4.6 vs. 3.4 per 90 minutes), along with a higher level of accuracy (48% vs. 42%).

The big secret? A change in Salah’s Pitch Positioning

Since last year, the number of Mo Salah’s shots per 90 minutes has increased by more than 50%. Mirroring Salah’s attitude for shooting, his number of key passes per 90 minutes did drop by almost one-fourth, year-on-year. Put in other words, Mohammed Salah has managed to become more of a forward and less of an attacking midfielder. Based on his latest heatmaps, Salah is now playing very close to the goal, as compared to his average position on the pitch that he maintained while playing for Spalleti’s AS Roma.

Mohammed Salah Consistent xG Outperformance

In the last 4 years, Liverpool’s Mohammed Salah has shown some sort of high consistency when it comes to his chances of outperforming xG (with a lower-than-average volatility). Mo Salah’s number of non-penalty goals, compared to the percentage of non-penalty expected goals, hasn’t changed a lot, remaining at around his average level of 127%. Interestingly, so far this season, Salah has slightly underperformed his own standards (123% vs. 127%), something that makes everything appear positive regarding the rest of the season.

Salah’s Flying Form

After exploding onto the scene way back in 2017, some wondered whether Mohammed Salah was more of a flash-in-the-pan. He didn’t manage to score more than 15 goals in a season in Italy, while his Premier League stint with Chelsea was nothing but an absolute failure. Some even though that Salah would be injury prone, especially considering the physical nature of English soccer.

Fortunately, none of what was thought of Mohammed Salah’s concerns has come into fruition. He’s managed to play at least 34 EPL games in each of his 4 seasons at Liverpool, managing to supply the Reds with no less than 19 domestic goals in that span. His hand in 16 goals for Liverpool this season is arguably the best mark in the league.

Assuming Mohammed Salah continues to stay healthy, there’s no reason to expect his performance and goal tally to drop off any time soon. After a lackluster 2020/21 season, Liverpool as a whole, and Mo Salah in particular has been in form for the new campaign.

Harry Kane’s Poor Start

Tottenham Hotspur’s Harry Kane began the 2021/22 season as the favorite to clinch the Golden Boot, and perhaps, with good reason. The captain of The Three Lions has been England’s prolific scorer for the last couple of years. Harry Kane has recorded at least 20 goals in league play, 5 times in the last 7 years, including his 30-goal outburst way back in the 2017-18 campaign.

This season though, Spurs are off to a disastrous EPL campaign. First year manager Nuno Espirito Santo was recently shown the door and replaced by Antonio Conte. Over the summer, Kane told Tottenham’s brass that he wanted to leave, though Tottenham refused to sell their best player. Kane hasn’t done match either, with the 28-year old only finding the back of the net once through his first 8 games. This gives Liverpool’s Mohammed Salah a good chance of picking the Golden Boot.

Many bookmakers and sports bettors believe that EPL’s 2021/22 Golden Boot is Mohamed Salah’s to lose. Salah is at 1/1 to win the Golden Boot and based on his current fine form, there’s no reason as to why you may not want to back him to clinch the Golden Boot at the end of the campaign.

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